GCN Circular 36437

The LIGO Scientific Collaboration, the Virgo Collaboration, and the KAGRA Collaboration report:

We identified the compact binary merger candidate S240512r during real-time processing of data from LIGO Hanford Observatory (H1), LIGO Livingston Observatory (L1), and Virgo Observatory (V1) at 2024-05-12 02:41:39.151 UTC (GPS time: 1399516917.151). The candidate was found by the GstLAL [1], MBTA [2], and PyCBC Live [3] analysis pipelines.

S240512r is an event of interest because its false alarm rate, as estimated by the online analysis, is 3.2e-10 Hz, or about one in 1e2 years. The event's properties can be found at this URL:

https://gracedb.ligo.org/superevents/S240512r

The classification of the GW signal, in order of descending probability, is BBH (98%), NSBH (2%), Terrestrial (<1%), or BNS (<1%).

Assuming the candidate is astrophysical in origin, the probability that the lighter compact object is consistent with a neutron star mass (HasNS) is <1%. [4] Using the masses and spins inferred from the signal, the probability of matter outside the final compact object (HasRemnant) is <1%. [4] Both HasNS and HasRemnant consider the support of several neutron star equations of state. The probability that either of the binary components lies between 3 and 5 solar masses (HasMassGap) is 2%.

Two sky maps are available at this time and can be retrieved from the GraceDB event page:
 * bayestar.multiorder.fits,0, an initial localization generated by BAYESTAR [5], distributed via GCN notice about 36 seconds after the candidate event time.
 * bayestar.multiorder.fits,1, an initial localization generated by BAYESTAR [5], distributed via GCN notice about 5 minutes after the candidate event time.

The preferred sky map at this time is bayestar.multiorder.fits,1. For the bayestar.multiorder.fits,1 sky map, the 90% credible region is 362 deg2. Marginalized over the whole sky, the a posteriori luminosity distance estimate is 1077 +/- 289 Mpc (a posteriori mean +/- standard deviation).

For further information about analysis methodology and the contents of this alert, refer to the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Public Alerts User Guide https://emfollow.docs.ligo.org/.

 [1] Tsukada et al. PRD 108, 043004 (2023) doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.108.043004
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 and Ewing et al. (2023) arXiv:2305.05625
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 [2] Aubin et al. CQG 38, 095004 (2021) doi:10.1088/1361-6382/abe913
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 [3] Dal Canton et al. ApJ 923, 254 (2021) doi:10.1088/1361-6382/abe913
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 [4] Chatterjee et al. ApJ 896, 54 (2020) doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab8dbe
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 [5] Singer & Price PRD 93, 024013 (2016) doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.93.024013
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